Saturday, October 22, 2011

Relativity among humans

The biological origin of the relativity bias
As the human mind is biological in origin, it is not naturally inclined to frame thoughts in absolute terms. Having no reference to an absolute definite scale, the human mind is forced to generate thoughts, pass judgments and form conclusions using relative references. This has wide-ranging implications for the behaviour of individuals, groups and societies.

Relativity among individuals
Relativity and sensation
Psychologist Cialdini's experiment with subjects reporting their sensation of water at room temperature is an example of relative bias affecting the rationalization of individuals. Cialdini instructed subjects to first place one hand in a bucket of warm water, then the other hand in a bucket of room temperature. The subjects reported that the water at room temperature felt cold. Similarly, he repeated the experiment, but changed the warm water to cold water. The subjects subsequently reported feeling that the water at room temperature felt warm. 

Relativity affecting how the weights we ascribe to recent and historical events
This simple experiment shows 2 aspects of human irrationality that we often fail to acknowledge - the tendency to ascribe value in a relative manner and the recency effect. The recency effect refers to the way we tend to weight events that happened recently more than events which happened in the past.

Why we treat wins and losses differently
The relativity bias also affects how we treat potential losses and wins. Prospect theory demonstrates our aversion to loss and also our risk-seeking behaviour. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory) Simply put, we would walk 20 minutes to save $1 on a $4 plate of noodles, while we would not walk to the next Apple store to compare prices for a $700 iPad 2. For losses, we can examine the experiment conducted by Richard Thaler, where students display significantly different behaviours in 2 cases (http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/prospect.htm). The first group of students were told to assume that they had won $30 and vote for a coin flip to decided whether they would win or lose $9. 70% of students voted to toss the coin. Another group were then given $30 and offered a chance to flip a coin to decide whether they would receive $21 or $39. 43% of students in the second group chose the coin flip. Thus, when people have gained something, they are reluctant to lose what they have gained. When people have nothing, they tend to adopt risk-seeking behaviour.

Since Prospect Theory seeks to explain the anamolous behaviour through a S-shaped utility curve, I would like propose that relativity bias be used to explain the origin of the S-shape. Relativity affects us in 2 ways, thus shaping the curve. For the example of lunch and iPads, we unconsciously or consciously judge the savings relative to the absolute amount we are intending to spend. Relativity also affects us in an emotional sense through our perceived relative social status. Once we have gained something, we perceive ourselves to be ranked higher in terms of social status and we are reluctant to lose that increased rank.

Examining the concept of identity, we can also break down an individual's perceived identity in terms of how an individual visualizes himself or herself relative to the other people whom he or she interacts with. We assume different roles according to the time and group that we are in.

We can thus attempt to understand individual human fallacies such as the attitude towards sunk costs, gamblers displaying increasingly desperate behaviour and the failure to learn from history.

Relativity among groups
Envy driving economic exertions
What happens when the effect of the relativity bias is extended to groups? Many people would instinctively choose the option of winning $5,000 in a lottery while their neighbours gain nothing, than win $50,000 while all their neighbours win $100,000. This explains the general disquiet felt when someone gets a brand new sports car while the rest of their friends are driving normal sedans. This explains the rush to keep appearences up with the neighbours, office politics and the behaviour of relatives at family gatherings. The annual jockeying of positions is keenly felt by those who come from a Chinese family, although I believe this behaviour is present in most cultures. Hence, as income inequality increases, society will naturally experience greater unhappiness and disquiet until a great reset. Greed may not drive the economic progress as much as envy (http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/why-envy-dominates-greed.html).

Fluctuations in the stock markets
If we allow ourselves to treat the stock market as an emergent system from the behaviour of individuals, the bias due to relativity becomes useful in explaining the inherent irrationality present in stock market movements. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is only roughly right, with the aberrant behaviour ("Mr Market") probably being explained by the relativity bias. Since relativity affects our decision-making processes with respect to time (recency), losses and wins, it is understandable why people cut their losses too late and why people sell their winners too early. It would be resisting typical hardwired human tendencies to not do so.

The relativity of morality and social norms
What is morality and social norms? If you merely hold yourself and others true to certain principles and commitments, you are merely being self-righteous. I will attempt to define morality as a common but not universal unexclusive dynamic intertwined commitments among a large porous group of people that emerges from the set of mutual commitments. Morality and social norms only become powerful as a set of mutually binding commitments relative to the individuals in a group or society. However, the boundaries of the group are porous, the dynamic set is largely common but not universally agreed upon and the way morality emerges cannot be controlled. Hence, it is logical to follow why morality becomes extremely subjective and divisive, as undeniably, there exists relative standards of commitments as perceived by each individual within the porous group. Regardless of such an argument, I do believe there exists universal human truths such as the "Golden Rule", which seems to be repeated across multiple monotheistic and multitheistic religions.

Possible counters against relativity
Are we able to counter this relativity bias? This relativity bias is not always bad. If we cast our future selves as always being relatively better than our current selves, this personal reflection using relative judgements is useful for self-improvement.

It is my own personal hope (warning: introduction of subjective human bias) that we are able to detect signs that we are being subjective and objectively correct our thought processes. Remarkably, Buddhism and Stoicism have devised practices that address this fallacy of relativity bias in human behaviour.

Both Buddhism and Stoicism seems to emphasize a clear recognition of desires or insatiables. Having recognized the presence of these desires, one cultivates a mindset that reflects upon these desires and devises practices to rationalize why those desires are unnecessary. One method used is the concept of "impermanence". Recognizing that most things life are transient, we are able to cast the desire or want as being a mere blip in any relevant timeline we choose. We can also choose to frame what we lack into what we already possess. Before getting angry, we can also observe the emotional state in which we are getting angry and find a way to cast the situation in a relative favourable light. Thus, only a person's imagination limits the number of alternative reference frames to switch to in a tricky situation.

On a deeper level, through daily cultivation, Buddhism and Stoicism works on removing the generation of thoughts that lead to such desires. Clearing the mist of such desires, one can then focus on true happiness.

Personally, I find this concept of relativity very useful. I find myself being extremely arrogrant most of the time. By shifting my relative frame of reference, I am attempting to find a way to reduce or remove this arrogance as way to introducing much-needed humility. I also tend to judge people extremely quickly and harshly. By shifting my frame of reference, I see the person completely and am able to appreciate the person's faults relative to their strengths. 

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Clojure - Printing special characters " \ / { } # ' $

I was playing around with Clojure and I had a problem printing out the following special characters:
" \ / { } # ' $

I uploaded the solution here: https://github.com/ryanteo/clojure-utilities

You can define a string containing all these special characters, then you can access each character by its index as a string in Clojure is stored as a sequence.
Not sure why this works (no time to read the documentation), but it's my hack-around.

As a side note, I've attached this reference for printing special characters in other languages.

Reference:

Saturday, October 1, 2011

A love story over a lifetime

Quoted from The Straits Times, Lee Wei Ling

He told her: "We have been together for most of our lives. You cannot leave me alone now. I will make your life worth living in spite of your physical handicap."
She replied: "That is a big promise."
Papa said: "Have I ever let you down?"

"Today is a public holiday in Singapore. Can I take a break from swimming."
Papa replied: "No, have a swim. You will feel better after that."

They had concluded that the one who died first would be the lucky one.

“For reasons of sentiment, I would like part of my ashes to be mixed with Mama's, and both her ashes and mine put side by side in the columbarium. We were joined in life and I would like our ashes to be joined after this life."

江蕙 - 家后

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Understanding Financial Leverage in a crazy world: UBS Trader losing USD$2 billion

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/15/ubs-star-trader-arrest-career
Given that I don't understand or have studied finance, I shall try to understand what happened during this incident.

Recently, a UBS trader lost USD$2 billion while trading. Of course, there's a lot of outrage (heard that, seen that before..) about how such a sound financial institution could have such a lax financial control, but I think the whole system was designed from the start to incentivise such risk-taking behaviour.

"In simple terms Delta One Trading is buying or selling an investment instrument that you don’t own. Delta One desks trade financial derivatives, or investment vehicles that mirror closely the price of a real asset. Any position taken is offset or hedged."
You are trading virtual goods.

The trader was earning at least a comfortable mid-6 figures. Let's assume he earned around USD$300,000/year and his annual performance bonus is 24 months. His bonus would have amounted to USD$600,000. Of course, his bonus is based on performance. It is also apparent that his bonus dwarfs his salary by a lot. Therefore, he would definitely want to earn more by taking extreme risks than earning just his basic salary. Given that traders are regularly fired based on performance, he would be forced to chase profits. Most investment bankers are also only in it to make a quick buck and retire in 5 years, hence everyone is trying to earn as much as possible before burning out.

For him to lose USD$2 billion, he must also have had the chance of earning USD$2 billion. For a person earning ~USD$1 million/year, he enjoyed 1000x leverage. In order to employ that leverage successfully, he should have some combination of insider knowledge, intelligence, sense of timing, judgement and experience. Guess he did not.

I know things don't scale as simply, but would you let someone earning $1 buy something from you that costs $1000 on credit?

The other thing that puzzles me is the unknown identities of the parties who earned that USD$2 billion. Someone must have earned it. If someone did not earn it, then we are effectively creating more exotic virtual financial fluff and printing more useless paper money.

Back to a simpler and more rational life as an engineer in a startup.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Startups - A daily journey of gratefulness

Ever since starting, we've met our fair spectrum of good and bad people. The funny thing is, most people are good and decent, who want to help you, even just a little along the way.

The world isn't so bad after all.

We've had our share of nasty and snobbish nurses, belligerent distributors, suspicious bosses and haughty doctors.

We've also had touching support from our customers, nice "aunty" nurses, supportive suppliers, suppliers who turned friends, mentors, reporters, friends, girlfriends (my co-founders, not me.. =) ) and family. These are the people we like to help or try our best to help.

The funny thing is.. you tend to forget the bad and nasty incidents, while remembering the nice people.

Of course, in a startup, after screaming at each other a couple of times.. It all tends to even out and everyone's pretty happy being buried under their own workload =)

Funnily, the good tends to amplify the good, while the nasty just vanishes before you even start getting angry. We've got nicer people to help, than wasting time getting angry over one person or any incident.

Maybe, a startup can be defined as "a daily journey of gratefulness".

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Eriz Mazur's Keynote at ICER 2011 - The scientific approach to teaching: Research as a basis for course design

I came across an interesting presentation by Eric Mazur on how to teach students physics better.

The perceived test result differences between gender is probably due to culture.
  • The study tested American and Taiwanese students, and the gender difference among Taiwanese students was not significant.

Interactive teaching and engagement improves test scores.
  • However, not all engagement is useful or helpful. For example, showing students physics demonstrations may have an adverse impact as students may remember the demonstration using the wrong understanding of the principles. Hence, when you show students something, be very aware of what they are taking away from what you are demonstrating.

Students like teachers to be clear.

Confusion is a good sign.
  • It shows that the students are trying to make sense of what is being taught.

I wonder how this affects technical education (the supposedly more science, math and computing subjects) for girls.

Blog post:
Slides:

Given that I teach tuition to 2 girls, this is interesting. I'm still thinking about how to incorporate this.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

佛在心中 - Buddha lives within your heart

I have heard the saying "佛在心中“ being used when someone is caught in a situation which does not exactly align perfectly with commonly known Buddhist practices (Note: common Budddist practices are normally just practices, I don't really think Buddha ever tried to control the things you eat, the clothes you wear. I think Buddha is only concerned with how you think). For example, this saying is often heard when someone eats meat while claiming to be a Buddhist.

I shall digress here shortly to talk a little about 杀生. Actually, I've heard that Buddhism does not forbid eating meat, as long as you do not "杀生". 杀生 is the act of killing just for one's pleasure, hence eating meat for one's survival is fine. You might accidentally step on an ant, or consume bacteria in the water you are drinking.. these are not considered 杀生.

Anyway, back to the saying. I recently had another understanding of the phrase triggered by reading the opening chapter of "I Wonder Why". The saying could also refer to the internal Buddha that lies within everyone, although it is shrouded by our human frailties.

Therefore, I shall use this saying to balance my personal proclivity to judge a person harshly. It's a much easier life to lead.

Sep 11, 2011

11092011

I read the stories, and uncontrollably, I tear. I find myself moved by the stories which required extraordinary heroism.

The reality of it is that people move on. It is both human tragedy and human strength to bounce back from unimaginable suffering and loss.

It's been 10 years. I find myself wondering how someone like me, as far removed as I am from New York and doubly estranged due to the passage of time, could be touched by the sense of loss.

I think about how Singaporeans would react.

I wonder whether we would show the kind of inner strength to pick ourselves from the rubble. I question whether we have the resilience. I doubt we can draw upon a common core.

I also wonder what actions I would have done. Would I have ran? Would I have helped?

(thoughts in progress)

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Toxic encounters with oneself

Recently, I'm experiencing a long ongoing dispute with a friend (I'm pretty sure I don't consider him to be as close to me anymore) which exposed several of my assumptions and weaknesses about myself.

Much as I would like to think that I am wise, mature, benevolent, unfortunately, I am still human, small-minded and extremely petty.

As many of my friends would know, I am perfectly able (I'm not sure whether this is considered a strength or weakness) to completely cut off someone totally.

For quite a few days, I was searching and questioning myself. In retrospect, from experience, it's easier to be the "bigger" person. The internal turmoil and self-doubt is worse than the lasting serenity of forgiveness.

I am what I am. This does not stop me from knowing who I am, while striving to be a little bit better today.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Of discontent and progress

Our minds dream of visions
Beyond the limits of
Where our eyes can see
Stretching further than
What our arms can reach

Of discontent and progress
The story of mankind's struggle, death and rebirth
Because we dreams of visions
That we strive to see
That we yearn to touch
That we long to live