I guess I am pretty paranoid, but I am very concerned for Singapore. This was exacerbated by attending 2 recent networking events. Both were very useful to me as someone interested in China and entrepreneurship.
It seems that many of my peers are in a cocoon of blissful ignorance. However, we must realise that China's impact will cause Singapore to lose certain advantages that we take for granted in 5 - 8 years time. We are no longer as advanced or as rich as we think we are. There will no longer be jobs in MNCs or banks. The moment that China's business environment becomes more stable and easier to do business, many of these MNCs will seriously contemplating uprooting their operations. My major takeaway from the event is the deadline that is ticking, a window of 5 years for us to exploit our bilingual advantage. Miss that, and we are useless. We are clearly ranked after Hongkong, Shanghai and Taiwan in the pecking order as an entrance into China.
There are a lot of attitudes towards China that I am strongly opposed to. Singaporeans seem to think that China is a hardship posting and that we can always rely on the U.S. market for jobs. Singaporeans also have a biased attitude towards the Chinese. However, I think it should be an attitude of mutual respect.
Singapore is not a gateway to Asia. It can only be a gateway to Southeast Asia, which is a geographically diverse region with many smaller regional economies. It is not a region with market economies of scale. Infrastructure and language problems plague the region, and there is no semblance of connectivity between the countries. Taking a wild shot, Indonesia, Vietnam and Phillipines seem promising. I personally would be most interested in Indonesia's and Vietnam's development over the next few years. I only know Indonesia and Vietnam superficially through holidays and short trips, but I feel that it's time to put in some effort to understand them better.
I will add on to this post with further thoughts, but I thought it's better to publish this first and get feedback.
China's impact will cause Singapore to lose certain advantages that we take for granted in 5 - 8 years time.
ReplyDeleteActually, we've been in trouble since the 80's. It's just been steadily getting worse.
That said, we'd be okay for the next 10 years or so as long people don't rock the boat at the next Elections. The day of reckoning will come in about 2 decades the way I see it.
Not that I like the PAP very much, but this nation is facing very very serious economic challenges. We need very tough (and unpopular) policies moving forward to keep the day of reckoning at bay.
We are no longer as advanced or as rich as we think we are.
Those who think we're particularly rich and/or advanced have never seen Shanghai.
My major takeaway from the event is the deadline that is ticking, a window of 5 years for us to exploit our bilingual advantage.
It's not just an issue of language. There's also an issue of culture. Some of the Westerners seriously don't get the cultural issues. I think it's a 10-year, not 5-year window we have.
Singaporeans seem to think that China is a hardship posting and that we can always rely on the U.S. market for jobs. Singaporeans also have a biased attitude towards the Chinese.
A lot of Singaporeans are just not smart, but think they are damn smart. Thanks for this post. I hope that after CS3216, at least 44 NUS students (Singaporean or otherwise) will become smart, if they are not already smart.
Singapore is not a gateway to Asia. It can only be a gateway to Southeast Asia, which is a geographically diverse region with many smaller regional economies.
The correct adjective is not "smaller", but "hopeless".
Taking a wild shot, Indonesia, Vietnam and Phillipines seem promising. I personally would be most interested in Indonesia's and Vietnam's development over the next few years. I only know Indonesia and Vietnam superficially through holidays and short trips, but I feel that it's time to put in some effort to understand them better.
The way I see it, Indonesia and Philippines have no hope. The ones to watch out for are Vietnam and China.... why would I say that?
I just spoke with my Vietnamese ex-student today. Told him that the opportunities are at home. :-P
That said, it's not all gloom and doom. There is opportunity in abundance. Singapore is perhaps the most egalitarian and meritocratic society on earth. If our people get smarter, we'd do okay. That's why I believe in education. :-)
"A lot of Singaporeans are just not smart, but think they are damn smart. " - Prof. Ben
ReplyDeletehaha.. i can identify with this. lots of singaporeans think they're on top of the world.
On a side note, I really like this blog entry. Indeed, China is a booming market and people realize it. Yet, most people are just complacent. What they know about China is just Shanghai and Hong Kong.
There's a point of concern however that I will like to raise - that is, I think it is very difficult for Singaporeans (especially start-ups) to break into the Chinese market. It will take years, and it's far more difficult to survive in China despite its opportunities. I believe most entrepreneurs may be stuck in a situation where they realize the market is there - it's just that "OpenSesame" is not working.
I think it is very difficult for Singaporeans (especially start-ups) to break into the Chinese market. It will take years, and it's far more difficult to survive in China despite its opportunities. I believe most entrepreneurs may be stuck in a situation where they realize the market is there - it's just that "OpenSesame" is not working.
ReplyDeleteWell said. China is a promising but tough market.
That's why you guys better be grateful that Singapore is importing a lot of PRC scholars. Please go and make friends. :-)
Okie, if you feel that since this problem has existed since the 80s, then it's probably bigger than what I thought. I was born after 1985, so I've only experienced stuff after 80s.
ReplyDeleteI am kinda pessimistic because during the talk, I heard about the 4Qs: IQ, EQ, AQ, CQ. Our Adversity Quotient is too low. We are not like the Scandinavian countries who have access to large resources. (Norway has oil and salmon etc) CQ refers to Character quotient. I can't say for everyone, but I am not very confident of my own CQ either.
Lol.. "hopeless".
I'm not sure about whether Indonesia is that lost a cause. I have came into contact with some Indonesians who are like us, passionate, having their own ideals, starting their own projects. They might face more restrictions, but they have a much larger stage to play on. Also, it's the largest market nearest to us.
I feel that 5 years is not unreasonable. I know a lot of people with more experience think that we still have more than 5 years, but honestly, from my experience in Shanghai, China moves at a rate that surprises everyone. I've met people 5 years younger than mine who think, move and learn faster. They are all getting into advanced programmes at America's and Europe's best universities, with firm plans to come back to China. They will return in 5 years time and they are politically connected with a lot of resources to tap on.
I think to break into China, you have to really go back to your roots, understand the last 100 years of China's history and respect their ways.
Our Adversity Quotient is too low.
ReplyDeleteThat's exactly what the MM said. :-)
I'm not sure about whether Indonesia is that lost a cause. I have came into contact with some Indonesians who are like us, passionate, having their own ideals, starting their own projects.
Think Tiananmen. What do you get when you have a student in front of tank? .... rolled over.
Takes more than ideals to save the world. You first have to be smart and UNDERSTAND the world first.
Also, there are some structural problems with no solutions.
from my experience in Shanghai, China moves at a rate that surprises everyone.
Yep, and they're overheating. High growth is not necessarily a good thing. China is currently grappling with a lot of issues -- high unemployment, unrest, runaway real estate, corruption and now Google.
Will take more than 5 years to deal with these things.
Oh and a lot of the very best and brightest, DO NOT go back. My estimate is that China is still experiencing net brain drain and quite serious brain drain.
the moment that China's business environment becomes more stable and easier to do business.
ReplyDeleteThat day is still far off imo. It still boils down to relationships.
I'm not sure about whether Indonesia is that lost a cause. I have came into contact with some Indonesians who are like us, passionate, having their own ideals, starting their own projects. They might face more restrictions, but they have a much larger stage to play on. Also, it's the largest market nearest to us.
As an Indonesian coming from quite an influential family, I can frankly say there is alot of opportunities. But as a supporter of stable and efficient dictatorships(i.e. 1 fantastic guy in power vs 20 corrupted incompetent retards in power), and having spoken to many rich and influential indonesians, i can say this, the future is bleak. Every single one of the rich indon guys i have spoken to have sent their kids out overseas. they have practically sent their entire family overseas as well. and i'm not talking about the normal rich ppl. they are the really rich rich ppl who can really change the country's future at will.
but why are they not doing that? they are very patriotic bunch of ppl. we want to change indon. but the leadership is damn corrupted. and the locals are afraid of seeing the chinese in power, because frankly, some of the actions by the chinese there appalls me, especially those who marry into rich families and the descendants of rich clans. they treat the locals very very badly, at times, worse than dogs.
the day the chinese can win elections will be the day indonesia has a future. not that i am a racist, but majority of the educated there are chinese. there is a structural problem, and there is a solution. but it'll take alot of money and determination to get it solved. but i believe it will be solved one day.
It's not just an issue of language. There's also an issue of culture. Some of the Westerners seriously don't get the cultural issues. I think it's a 10-year, not 5-year window we have.
I think singaporeans don't get it too. it's not just about reaching the market with that culture, and creating products for that culture. it's about making sure the government likes you, the people you are working with likes you too. it's about building bridges with the right ppl, creating the 人情 account in the top ppl there, and when u need help, you got to have alot to withdraw =P. sounds real corrupted, but that's life. take it from a guy who has experienced lots of corruption first hand.
just my 2c's worth =)
hi ben,
ReplyDeletei went to your cs3216 blog and clicked around, and so i'm here.
i am concerned for sg's future too. furthermore, we are facing a big talent drain. a senior(around 4 years older than me, i'm born in 84) from RJC told me that all his sg friends who are not bonded are all overseas now. the fact is that besides finance, most other industries in sg will have problems attracting good mobile people to stay behind in sg due to the limited oppportunities and lower wages. and now, even finance is facing a big blow. these few years, several banks have annouced that they are moving their higher level operations from sg to hk, and i have friends from NUS who are now trying to find a banking job in HK after graduation.
@Shao Wei,
ReplyDeletea senior(around 4 years older than me, i'm born in 84) from RJC told me that all his sg friends who are not bonded are all overseas now.
You are right. Half my RI Sec 4 classmates are either in the US, HK or Shanghai. Many of them went to HBS.
But not too bad lah. Got a couple of stupid ones like me who decide to come back. Probably one of the laupok ones who cannot make it overseas. :-)
But there's another way to look at the issue. Singapore has really had it too good for too long for no good reason. It might perhaps be time for some regression to the mean. Some suffering probably won't kill anyone. Maybe we can also vote the PAP out and get a dose of incompetent Govt while we are at it. :-)
Maybe a little bit of shaking up would be good for the long term?
The whole situation is truly quite complicated. For example, suppose you get your PhD, I really cannot say for certain that there will be a job for you in Singapore. We only have so many universities and some universities (I won't say which ones :-P) you probably won't want to join. So how? If you don't come back, would it be fair to brand you a "quitter"?
My advice to you is that you should just do what fully maximizes your potential and allows you to create the most value. If that's going to happen outside SGP, don't have to feel bad. I think it's unreasonable to expect Singaporeans to come back if there are no jobs here for them.
What you cannot expect is for Singapore to give you special treatment so that you will come back. In the world today, you have to compete on merit. If I get my tenure, I want to know that I got my tenure because I am as good as my foreign colleagues, not because I get special treatment as a Singaporean. :-P Affirmative action is the slippery slope to hell -- and we don't have to look very far to figure that out.
As it turns out, I get my fair share of annual call-ups. I suay suay fail IPPT and end up doing RT. But I just do loh and I don't complain. Complain for what? Just shut up and do loh.
What really bothers me are the stuff I read online and in the Forum Page about people who complain about NS, reservist, about the foreigners stealing their jobs..... seriously AQ is v low and expectations unrealistically high. Also, it's the Ris Low generation, aka "It's all about me!" (or "what's in it for me").
While the nasty economic outlook (and the fact that the world is running out of oil soon) is a concern to me, what bothers me more is the rot within. While our fore-fathers who were themselves immigrants were tough and hardy, our people are increasingly cannot make it. It is not about intellect or ability. It's all about fighting spirit and resilience (or rather lack thereof).
Disclaimer: truthfully, I must admit that I'm really not completely sure at this point that more and more Singaporeans "cannot make it". What seems to be the case is that these CMI types are increasingly vocal. The same fellas might have been around all along but are just more "visible" (and therefore give me an impression that there are more of them) now because of the Internet?
Anyway, that's why I believe in education. There's steady entropy, but I believe that education can somewhat stall the degradation.
I know that I'm not going to be able to make much of a difference lah -- but tell me: how many things in life are there truly worth fighting for? :-)
In case you're wondering why I say Philippines has no hope, this is why....
ReplyDeleteJan 22, 2010
Philippines village chief killed
MANILA - GUNMEN barged into the home of a village leader in the central Philippines, killing him in front of his family in the latest violence ahead of May elections, the military said on Friday.
Danny Amor was shot several times in the back with silencer-fitted pistols as he had dinner at home with his family in Masbate province's San Jacinto township late on Thursday, said Maj. Harold Cabunoc, an army spokesman.
Maj. Cabunoc said politics was believed behind the killing, the second poll-related murder in the province in three days. The head of a village leaders' association was shot dead Tuesday in Esperanza township.
In May, Filipinos will vote for a new president, senators, congressmen and officials down to the village level. Elections in the Southeast Asian democracy are typically marred by bloodshed and fraud.
In November, 57 people were massacred in the southern Philippines on their way to register a gubernatorial candidate - the worst election-related violence in the country's history. Members of a rival clan have been arrested but only one has so far been charged over the killings.
In an attempt to forestall violence ahead of the polls, two weeks ago the Philippines initiated a five-month, nationwide ban on carrying guns in public, and at least 357 violators have been arrested so far, including 52 police and military personnel found with weapons while not in uniform or on duty. -- AP
actually, i think people are getting more self centered partly because of a gahman that always emphasizes how much they are underpaid, and that many civil servants will leave for the private sector if their pay is not increased in proportion to the private sector.
ReplyDeletea friend posted this article on fb which apparently appeared on lianhe zaobao
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=276114917152&id=1917893&ref=mf
离开顾问公司，我心情很矛盾。其实我并不是真的想移民，但也不敢确定这个地方是否值得去爱？现在新加坡被当作一家大型企业来经营，凡事以商业利益为考量。既然如此，人们以同样的思维模式对待此地也不为过。按同样的思路，我们难道还要把人生精力最旺的阶段投资在这么冷漠的地方？这与居住在其他陌生的国度又有什么不同？
@Shao Wei,
ReplyDeletei think people are getting more self centered partly because of a gahman that always emphasizes how much they are underpaid, and that many civil servants will leave for the private sector if their pay is not increased in proportion to the private sector.
This is really quite lame, but if you are right, then it's really an indication that the people cannot think. If they are so gian the pay, then they can jolly well apply to become civil servants. :-)
The article is really no big deal. Much of what's said (and more) had already been said by Alfian Said ("If you care too much about Singapore, first it'll break your spirit, and finally it will break your heart.").
Migration is overrated. Ask yourself: why are these foreigners coming to Singapore? For the love of PAP?
It is a normal and natural for humans to migrate to places whether they have higher economic returns, or minimally a better life even if the pay is the same.
We have to come to terms with the fact that Singapore is too darn small to every become all things to all people. Those who like it here are free to stay; those who don't are free to find their happiness elsewhere.
If I were running MTI or MOM, I might be concerned, but as a scientist looking at the situation objectively, I am not surprised by what I see. In fact, I think it's a good sign that our little red dot nation provides its people to develop themselves to a level beyond the country itself.
It is regrettable that we are not able to generate enough high-level jobs to stem some of the brain drain, but whoever said job creation was easy?
Those who complain that the pace of life is too fast or life is too stressful jolly well learn to cope or ship out. As we had already discussed, the economic outlook is bleak. We're not all that smart compared to rest of the world. If we don't minimally work harder, we really have no hope.
Personally, I have no issues with Singaporeans migrating. I am happy to see people finding their dreams and living good lives. I wish them the best.
It's the losers who complain day in day out and yet DON'T ship out that really irritate me. :-)
Wow, this is one hell of a post Ryan. It's good that you brought this up.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I was not very surprised to see so many foreign students in CS3216. If my estimates aren't wrong, the percentage is something like 70%? Maybe Prof. can confirm this.
I'm not going to talk about China, I don't have much experience there and many other people have enough to talk about it, but I do believe they have the potential. China is just buying time before it blows up. I'm particularly interested in studying it's currency though.
But back here in Singapore it's quite a sad case really. I've been working close to five years now and I have quite a bad impression of most Singaporeans in the workforce. Just to quickly generalize, Singaporeans are either kiasee, kiasu, or kanasai.
Kiasee - These people choose to do things with the norm and wouldn't challenge or deviate from them. They are afraid that doing something "wrong" might destroy their career and "face". They rather leave things running "the tried and tested way". I particularly dislike these people because they hinder the growth of any company. Unfortunately there's a lot of these people, especially in mid to upper management.
Kiasu - These people can work, but are very self-centered. They keep knowledge to themselves and refuse to share, afraid that others might take their credit. Well, maybe such is work life, but IMHO these are losers as they will eventually lose out - no man is an island.
Kanasai - These people CMI, i.e. they think they know a lot, talk a lot, but cannot deliver results. I find it amusing that the local tech and sales people particularly fit this genre.
Of course there's people who CAN make it, but these people will eventually go elsewhere - at least out of local companies, and mostly out of Singapore.
So if every Singaporean is waiting to get paid more for doing less, join MNCs and call it a day, then who's going to build our flats, serve us coffee at coffee shops, renovate our houses and watch over your condo's security? Without such a food chain, do you think Singaporeans are going to have such a good time?
So the solution is simple lah. We are all familiar with the hokkien saying, "ay pee, ay chee, ay tua liap knee". Meaning we want cheap, fresh and big.
So gahmen says, let the foreigners come lor, so we can continue to have it cheap, fresh and big. This is how the world works what.
http://worldcentric.org/conscious-living/social-and-economic-injustice
If our people get smarter, we'd do okay. That's why I believe in education. :-)
ReplyDeleteAyiah then why you tell us don't study!
What really bothers me are the stuff I read online and in the Forum Page about people who complain about NS, reservist, about the foreigners stealing their jobs
Actually I think this is not true (stealing jobs part). If people were really stealing our jobs, we would have been fired long ago because a replacement was cheaper. I think that's a PROBLEM here. In fact, companies should fire incompetent people than hire others to cover for their incompetency. ;) Some stress is good for the economy.
@Justin,
ReplyDeleteAyiah then why you tell us don't study!
That's right. Don't STUDY. Instead, LEARN.
Learning and studying are not the same. When I was young, I also never study one. I just learnt stuff I cared about. Lucky for me, some of the stuff was applicable to the exams and I did ok. :-P
mugging distracts us from the important things in life :P
ReplyDeleteanyway, i'm surprised you brought up alfian saat's quote, i always thought of u as a pragmatic person who will probably think of him as a over idealistic person.
ReplyDeleteso do you agree with him? that we shouldn't care too much about singapore since many things are beyond our control? this is a surprise to me because you were from the civil service and given your position, i thought that you could have the opportunity to make changes in sg if you had stayed on.
@Shaowei,
ReplyDeletei always thought of u as a pragmatic person who will probably think of him as a over idealistic person.
And you're absolutely right. I have quite a dim view of folks like Alfian Saat and Catherine Lim. :-) But I do have to give them some credit for their idealism, conviction and good intentions.
so do you agree with him?
Yes and no lah.
that we shouldn't care too much about singapore since many things are beyond our control?
I think we should care and I don't think I care less about the future of this nation than Alfian or Catherine. That said, we have to be smart and learn to understand things. The truth of the matter is that much of life is really out of control (even the Govt's control). But so what? We still have to decide what to do with our lives everyday.
What I really cannot stand about folks like Alfian and Catherine is the implicit assumption that they are right and that life must go the way they like. Neither do they have any experience with governance and/or understand the associated complexities and they want to open their gaps and criticize.
After reading some stuff that Catherine wrote recently did I understand why Goh Chok Tong asked her to shut up or stand for elections. :-)
Does Govt know best? Not always, but typically, they know a lot more than any of the folks who are critical of what they are doing.
given your position, i thought that you could have the opportunity to make changes in sg if you had stayed on.
If I stayed on, I could probably afford to go learn cooking in France in a couple of years. Other than that, it would take a lot of hubris to think that one can "make changes".
What sort of change are you looking for? You want the Obama-flavoured change? What the heck is that? People what change, do they even know simi change? :-) Lower Ministerial pay? Yeah, a fat lot of good that will do for the future of this nation. :-)
Suppose I have the capability to solve Singapore's problems, I assure you that there are at least another 200 people running around in the Civil Service who are no dumber than me and can do no worse. My departure from the Civil Service makes not a dent to the grand plans of the universe. :-)
My view: forget change. The whole damn system is starting to fall apart (remember entropy?). Moving forward, even maintaining status quo will be a huge challenge. :-)